The commercial solar industry is bracing for a shake-up in 2025. Whether you're a business owner eyeing long-term energy savings or wanting to demonstrate net zero/ sustainability to remain relevant and profitable, you'll likely notice solar prices are on the move again. But is this a short-term spike or a deeper market trend?
In this post, we break down the key reasons why commercial solar costs are shifting — from rising Chinese PV module prices and policy changes to Australia's new AS/NZS 4777.1 updates and the quiet rollout of emergency backstop requirements in states like Victoria. Before you decide on commercial solar, here’s what you need to know.
1. Chinese Solar PV Prices Are Climbing — Here’s Why
A combination of supply chain, policy, and demand-side changes is driving up the price of solar panels coming out of China, which still dominates global solar manufacturing.
�� Policy Shifts in China
* Reduced Export Tax Rebates: As of December 2024, rebates for exported solar products were cut from 13% to 9%, increasing costs for overseas buyers.
* New PV Manufacturing Guidelines: China is cracking down on overcapacity and volatile pricing, pushing manufacturers to raise prices for long-term stability.
�� Rising Domestic Demand
China is expected to add 334 GW of solar capacity in 2024 alone. That’s tightening global supply and creating upward pressure on prices internationally.
�� Manufacturer Price Increases
Major players like Trina Solar and LONGi have announced price hikes on key modules, adding further cost increases downstream.
�� International Trade Tensions
The U.S. has doubled tariffs on Chinese solar cells to 50% in 2024, affecting pricing strategies and inventory flow globally.
Bottom Line: Commercial solar buyers in Australia and elsewhere should anticipate higher hardware costs in the short to mid-term, up to more than 10%!
2. Interface Protection Rules Have Changed (And It's Good News)
The latest amendment to AS/NZS 4777.1:2020 (Amendment 2) brings a welcome change for commercial system designers:
✅ Interface Protection (Relay) No Longer Required < 200 kVA
Previously, any system above 30 kVA required external interface protection (like relays and contactors). The new standard:
| System Size | Before | Now |
| ≤ 30 kVA | Not required | Not required (no change) |
| >30 kVA to < 200 kVA | Required | Not required ✅ |
| ≥ 200 kVA | Required | Still required |
�� Why This Matters
* Cuts hardware and install costs for medium-sized commercial systems
* Reduces complexity in design and commissioning
* Brings more consistency across DNSPs – Note that different DNSPs (electricity distributors) may implement this at different times.
Ask us to get an insight of your local DNSP requirements — some may still have specific connection criteria.
3. Emergency Backstop Requirements Are Catching People Off Guard
While less publicised, some states — notably Victoria — are implementing emergency backstop rules for new solar connections.
Different size thresholds trigger extra backstop requirements that translate to cost impact. In addition, systems with multiple inverters and grid connection points may require an additional budget.
⚠️ Hidden Cost Alert
Depending on your design, you may need to budget for extra hardware, communication infrastructure, or software configuration. Many solar companies aren’t factoring this in, primarily due to a lack of expertise — leading to:
* Price blowouts during installation
* Delays and headaches in grid connection approval
Pro Tip: Work with solar engineers who understand evolving DNSP rules and can price for compliance minimising surprises down the track.
Final Word: Should You Wait or Act?
With Chinese module prices rising and Australian standards relaxing, timing and planning your commercial solar project has never been more strategic. We may be able to help you secure existing stock in Q2 2025 to beat the impending price rise. While hardware costs may climb, reduced compliance burdens (like the 200 kVA interface protection threshold) and strong returns still make solar a smart investment.
Need help designing or assessing the feasibility of a compliant system in 2025? Our team stays on top of every standard and change — so you don’t have to.